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Baht/$ 33.57/60 (Bid/Ask)
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GOLD |
14,050
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NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE
Earnings growth this year by listed companies is projected at 21.3%, based on a baseline forecast for economic growth of 5%, according to the Securities Analysts Association.
The SAA, in its latest survey of local brokerage houses, said the SET index was projected to range from 628 to 828 points for the year. The index yesterday closed at 705.35 points.The forecast represents a downgrade from earlier projections of the SET index reaching as high as 927 points this year.
More than two-thirds of local analysts viewed oil prices as having passed their peak for the year, with prices and inflation now expected to ease in the months ahead.
Some 45% of the analysts said the government's stimulus and anti-inflation programmes would help boost economic growth over the next several months.
On the downside, 91% of those surveyed said political risk was a major concern, followed by inflation at 45% and rising interest rates by 41%.
Analysts said fears of a military coup or political meltdown over the next several months would remain a major overhang on sentiment and investor confidence. A dissolution of Parliament, on the other hand, would likely be favourably received by the investment markets as political tensions and infighting should ease in the immediate term.
For 2009, earnings growth is projected to fall to 6.6% from a torrid 21.3% gain this year. Economic growth is also projected to drop to 4.9% in 2009 from a consensus forecast of 5% this year.
Analysts said the baht should trade at 33.6 to the dollar by the end of the year and 33.8 in 2009, roughly unchanged from current rates.
The Bank of Thailand's one-day repurchase rate, now 3.5%, was projected to rise to 3.82% by year-end and 4.11% next year. Inflation was projected to average 7.3% this year and 4.9% in 2009.
Banks will lead the entire market in terms of earnings-per-share growth at 557.9% this year, thanks to lower provisioning expenses and higher net interest margins. The property sector was forecast to gain 25.7% in earnings, followed by shipping companies at 19.9%.
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