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Business >> Friday August 08, 2008
 
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AGRICULTURE

Thai rice exports set to fall next year as India lifts ban

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

Rice exports from Thailand might fall next year to between eight and 8.5 million tonnes as India, one of the leading rice exporters, is expected to lift bans late this year on exports of non-basmati rice due to rising supply.

Thailand could lose about two million tonnes of rice exports next year if the reports of eased Indian curbs starting in November are true, said Chookiat Ophaswongse, the president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

''Thailand may ship more than 10 million tonnes of rice this year, before sales drop to between 8 million and 8.5 million tonnes in 2009,'' he said. ''We won't likely see prices over $1,000 a tonne for a long time.''

India banned exports of non-basmati rice last October to rein in prices and control inflation.

But later in the month, it eased the ban on some superior varieties of the grain.

New Delhi banned exports again in March this year after annual inflation reached a 14-year high, alarming policymakers who later slapped export taxes on basmati rice in April on top of an existing ban on non-basmati rice exports.

India shipped 6.3 million tonnes of milled rice in the 2006-07 season. Its shipments dropped to 2.5 million tonnes in the 2007-08 season, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

''The Thai rice situation is not promising in the coming months following the government's rice pledging scheme that offered higher than market value prices,'' said Mr Chookiat. ''Moreover, the government currently holds a massive stockpile and this will eventually pull down market prices.''

The government's stockpile has risen 22% since the start of the latest programme launched in June to support prices paid to farmers.

The government just bought 790,000 tonnes of paddy, equivalent to 474,000 tonnes of milled rice, pushing its overall stocks to 2.57 million tonnes, up from 2.1 million tonnes in January.

Benchmark export prices from Thailand for 100% grade B white rice touched a record $1,038 a tonne on May 21, spurred by increased demand and export curbs imposed by some producers, including Vietnam. That grade's price was set yesterday at $811 a tonne, 22% less than the all-time high.


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