In provinces around Bangkok, Thai Rak Thai looks set for a near sweep

Story by SURASAK TUMCHAREON

In the approaching race to parliament, the Thai Rak Thai party is credibly predicted to win at least 80% of the seats in the Central Plains region, comprising the provinces surrounding Bangkok, at least partly because of its recent history as the core of the rise of the party led by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

With populist platforms honed for the campaign, and repeated pledges to create "opportunities" at the grass roots of every constituency, Mr Thaksin and TRT seem likely to sweep all seats in a dozen provinces.

Given the sustained popularity of the TRT leader among the villagers in many, perhaps most of the plains provinces, and the party's campaign tactics, the TRT candidates are apparently running ahead. Social Development and Human Security Minister Sora-ad Klinprathum and Deputy Transport Minister Vichet Kasemthongsri have been named "zone manager" and "zone secretary" respectively, taking charge of the TRT campaign in the region.

Mr Sora-ad's forecast that TRT would win around 70 seats in the plains provinces plus a majority in the East, where 97 seats are at stake, seems to be no exaggeration.

TRT candidates seems likely to sweep all seats in Ratchaburi, Nakhon Pathom, Saraburi, Ayutthaya and Nakhon Nayok. It also appears the dominant party will win at least one constituency in several other provinces, including even in the satellite towns previously ruled by Chart Thai in Kanchanaburi, Samut Sakorn, Phetchaburi, Prachuab Kiri Khan, Lop Buri, Ang Thong, Uthai Thani and Chai Nat.

Prominent TRT backers expected to win seats on Sunday include a son and brothers of party campaign director and former deputy premier Pongpol Adireksarn, who is running on a TRT party list while his relatives contest individual constituencies of Saraburi province. Similarly former cabinet member Chaiyod Sasomsap is on the party list hailed from Nakhon Pathom while his brothers seem likely to win seats in the Lower House in the same province.

The Democrat Party probably will win a few constituencies in the Central Plains, but only a few. Those are likely to go to Democrats who have earned and retained personal credit and popularity in specific constituencies, rather than because of the reputation, policies or campaign promises of the country's oldest party. Democrat candidates have tacitly admitted the party leader, former deputy premier Banyat Bantadtan, and backers do little or nothing to help their cause.

For the first time in several elections, former transport and communications minister Suthep Thuaksuban has committed little visible financial help to help the campaigns of his fellow Democrats, especially those seeking re-election in competition with the TRT.

Democrat veterans are tipped to retain their seats in Phetchaburi, Prachuab Kiri Khan and Samut Songkhram. Others have relatively slight chances in other races throughout this region.

Among the Democrats who seem likely to win Lower Houses seats is veteran lawmaker Alongkorn Palabutr, reportedly "blacklisted" by the TRT camp and seeking re-election in Phetchaburi against Ratchasak Klaiklueng, a close friend of the premier's son, Panthongthae Shinawatra. Nurse-turned-MP Rangsima Rodratsami also is favoured to win a Democrat seat in Samut Songkhram.

The chances of the Chart Thai Party and candidates, led by ex-premier Banharn Silpa-archa, appear no better than those of the Democrats _ even though the party is a member of the caretaker government. Not a few Chart Thai candidates have found difficulties explaining to their constituents the party campaign slogan: "Committalism makes a balanced society." Villagers wonder vociferously how such a perplexing phrase could possibly do them any good.

On the campaign trail, Mr Banharn has repeatedly complained about seats being "stolen" from his party and how he has been "confined" within his Suphan Buri fiefdom, unable to get out to help the Chart Thai campaign elsewhere. The Chart Thai leader has forecast his party will win no more than 20 seats, although almost 300 candidates are running under the Chart Thai banner.

Chart Thai candidates are expected to win in the provinces long thought as political satellites of Mr Banharn's Suphan Buri, where all six Chart Thai runners including the party leader will probably triumph _ Uthai Thani, Chai Nat, Ang Thong and Sing Buri.

Those tipped to win under Chart Thai seats along with the leader are Mr Banharn's son Worawut, and his daughter Kanchana. All of them are contesting Suphan Buri constituencies against TRT first-timers. Other likely winners are a nephew of Chart Thai secretary-general Prapat Pothasuthon and the son of Chart Thai secretary-general Jongchai Thiangtham, both running in remote constituencies of the region's midland provinces. Former deputy House speaker Somsak Prisananuntakul is seeking re-election against new-face contenders in Ang Thong.

Led by Democrat renegade Anek Laothammathat, Mahachon candidates are long shots to win anywhere in the region.

A few Mahachon contestants might win in Samut Prakan where former deputy interior minister Vatana Asavahame, who co-founded the party alongside ex-Democrat secretary-general Sanan Kachornprasat, is still considered a powerful figure.