Most, if not all, political observers find Paetongtarn Shinawatra's rise to power in the Pheu Thai Party as anything but a surprise.
The youngest daughter of jailed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was voted Pheu Thai's new leader on Oct 27, replacing Dr Cholnan Srikaew, who had resigned in a "show of responsibility" for failing to keep his pre-election promises that the party would never align with the military-leaning parties.
As well known, the party backtracked, embracing both Palang Pracharath and the United Thai Nation into the coalition. The rest is history.
Previously, Ms Paetongtarn, 37, was the leader of the "Pheu Thai family" -- an ambiguous position created shortly before the May 14 election where she was also a Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidate alongside Srettha Thavisin.
Now, her being named Pheu Thai leader marks the end of what we know as nominee politics -- with the-you-know-who leader pulling strings behind the scenes -- for this major political party, which had been twice dissolved over 16 years.
On the other hand, Ms Paetongtarn's new role shows confidence on the part of Thaksin, Pheu Thai's patriarch, over the party's transformation into a rightwing party, distancing itself from reform of key institutions as well as the amendment of Section 112, which means the party faces no risk of being dissolved.
Such a transformation enabled Pheu Thai, the No.2 poll winner, to form a coalition government, while Thaksin could make a comeback and petition for a royal pardon.
In her new role, Ms Paetongtarn will lead the party to compete with the Move Forward Party (MFP), a friend turned foe, in the next election. This will not be an easy challenge, even though Pheu Thai is in power, as Thai politics has tremendously changed since the last election.
MFP, a relatively new party, beat Pheu Thai, winning 151 parliamentary seats, as against 141 won by the latter. MFP, under then-leader Pita Limjaroenrat, benefitted a great deal from the two-ballot system, which was initially supposed to give Pheu Thai the upper hand.
Overall, MFP won 14.4 million votes while Pheu Thai, then the poll hopeful, grabbed 10.9 million. It was an embarrassing loss for Pheu Thai, which had been known as the poll champion for almost two decades.
MFP made decisive wins even in Pheu Thai strongholds like Chiang Mai and Udon Thani. Such victories indicate a surge in voters' awareness and growing interest in election campaign policies.
Even though the MFP was ditched from the coalition and now performs in the opposition, its popularity has hardly dwindled. Moreover, the old powers' success in shooting down Mr Pita's premiership candidacy triggered an outpouring of public sympathy for the 42-year-old politician and his party.
Given that Ms Paetongtarn's presence in the last election, it's improbable she will make a difference for Pheu Thai in the next poll. This is because it's apparent MFP sympathisers will never shift their support to Pheu Thai.
There is also the matter of how Pheu Thai formed the government when it dumped the MFP to make that happen, losing along the way the trust of some of its supporters.
But, over the past two months, the Pheu Thai-led coalition seems to be performing quite well, thanks to its active approaches on issues such as the 20-baht flat rate for the purple line electric train and the control of gasoline and electricity prices.
Yet, the administration faces some large challenges concerning the gloomy world economy, while closer to home, there are doubts about the party's flagship policy -- the 10,000-baht digital wallet -- as well as efforts to increase the minimum wage.
The digital wallet saga is proving to be a bad omen for Pheu Thai, which has also become fragile due to internal rifts over fighting for cabinet positions.
Ms Paetongtarn will be tasked with cementing ties among bickering party members, while Thaksin keeps a low profile given his status as a sick inmate. This is probably why Thaksin has decided to push his daughter to the front instead of grooming her for a few more years.
Ms Paetongtarn's relatively young age and her being Thaksin's next of kin are perceived to be her strengths. Her weakness is her lack of political experience.
Pheu Thai has assigned her with two missions, as deputy chair of the National Soft Power Committee and the Health System Development Committee, in the hope of readying her for the top job.
Thaksin trusts Surapong Suebwonglee, his right-hand man, and has assigned him to mentor his daughter during this preparatory period while polishing her image as a competent leader.
When Thaksin is released from jail, presumably sometime early next year if granted another royal pardon, he will return and take the helm at the party with his daughter by his side. By then, she will be more ready as a PM candidate to face the challenges of the MFP.
To rebuild Pheu Thai, Ms Paetongtarn and Thaksin must learn the lessons from the last election about why the party trailed behind MFP. Undeniably, by refusing to rule out partnership with pro-military parties, Thaksin and Pheu Thai underestimated public sentiment against the junta regime.
That was a big mistake.
As a coalition leader, Pheu Thai may be able to regain public acceptance if it achieves promoting economic well-being. Meanwhile, it has to work extremely hard, keeping clear of corruption and tackling inequality.
Yet, what is deemed as Thaksin's privilege by staying in the Police Hospital's premium ward without setting foot into jail will do more harm than good. If proven to be an abuse of power, this will be a political wound that discredits the party in the long run, especially one seeking a political comeback.